Why prices are moving
Well above normalWhy are potato prices rising right now?
$24.00-25.00 per 50 lb carton FOB, Nov 3, 2026, at the benchmark spec. The market has risen 7 straight weeks.
Data through Nov 3, 2026 · source last checked Nov 4, 2026 · page revised Nov 4, 2026
Cite
- Comparison midpoint
- USDA mostly / low-high range
About this data
- Source
- USDA AMS shipping point potato FOB reports (FV130)
- Series
- Russet Norkotahs, 70-count 50 lb cartons, Upper Valley Idaho, FOB
- Basis
- FOB shipping point, low-high range
- Geography
- Upper Valley Idaho
- Unit
- $/50 lb carton
- Last observation
- Nov 3, 2026
- Update frequency
- USDA reports on business days, in season
The benchmark (Idaho russet Norkotahs, 70-count 50 lb cartons) is quoted at $24.00-25.00 per 50 lb carton and has risen 7 consecutive weeks, up 19.5% on the comparison midpoint since Sep 15, 2026. Idaho shipped 1,725 units of 10,000 pounds on Nov 2, 2026 (USDA movement). 6 origins are currently quoting FOB prices. The market is in the early storage season, shipping the fall crop out of the sheds.
Benchmark Idaho russet Norkotahs, 70-count 50 lb cartons, are at $24.00-25.00 per carton, having risen seven consecutive weeks and now at $24.50 midpoint, double the 5-year median of $12.00. Year-over-year the market is up 250% as buyers source through the early storage season. Six origins are currently quoting in a market shipping the fall crop.
| Period | Current | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week over week | $24.50 | $24.00 | +2.1% |
| Month over month | $24.50 | $21.50 | +14.0% |
| Year over year | $24.50 | $7.00 | +250.0% |
| vs 5-yr median | $24.50 | $12.00 | +104.2% |
Previous weeks
An earlier week
Idaho russet Norkotahs, 70-count 50 lb cartons, are quoted at $24.00-25.00 per carton, up 7 consecutive weeks and now 104.2% above the 5-year median. The market is in early storage season, with Idaho shipping 2,215 units of 10,000 pounds on Oct 30. Six origins are currently quoting.
Week of Oct 30, 2026
Mostly $24.00 per 50 lb carton, 70-count, the benchmark has climbed for four consecutive weeks, up 14.3% since Oct 2, 2026. The market is trading 100% above the 5-year median of $12.00 per carton, driven by the early storage season as the fall crop begins moving out of the sheds. Idaho shipped 924 units of 10,000 pounds on Oct 29, per USDA movement data through Oct 30, 2026.
An earlier week
Mostly $24.00 per 50 lb carton on Idaho russet Norkotahs, 70-count, stands at double the 5-year median after a 6-week consecutive run, up 17.1% on the comparison midpoint since Sep 17. Prices have climbed through the new-crop transition when fall harvest typically resets supply for the storage year, pointing to supply tighter than seasonal norms.
An earlier week
Idaho russet Norkotahs (70-count 50 lb cartons) are mostly $24.00 per 50 lb carton, up 6 straight weeks and double the 5-year median. The market is in the new-crop transition, when the fall harvest normally resets supply for the storage year. Idaho movement on Oct 27 hit 1,319 units of 10,000 pounds.
What makes potato prices rise
Fresh potato prices move for structural reasons that repeat every storage year. The fresh market is the price-discovery arena (most fry and chip volume is contracted ahead), there is no futures market smoothing the swings, and the discovery happens in the daily USDA shipping point reports this site tracks. A handful of factors do most of the work when prices rise.
The storage crop is the anchor. The fall harvest, led by Idaho and the Columbia Basin, is dug once and shipped from sheds for the following ten months, so a short crop casts a shadow over the whole marketing year: once the sheds are light, there is no second harvest until the next fall.
Grade-out decides how much of the crop is actually sellable. Storage potatoes are graded as they ship, and a season with heavy grade-out, from field stress or storage breakdown, shrinks the cartons available faster than the raw crop number suggests. The premium sizes thin out first, which shows up directly in the carton-count spread.
The count spread is the early warning. A 50 lb carton is graded by count (40- to 100-count, lower is bigger), and when the big-potato counts pull away from the small ones, the market is telling you the size profile of the remaining supply is deteriorating; broad rallies often start as count-spread rallies.
The late-storage squeeze is the calendar's built-in pressure point. Between the last of the old crop and the first new-crop shipments, supply passes through its narrowest window, and the benchmark often firms into early summer as sheds empty. The weekly board shows which districts are still quoting through it.
Demand is steady, so supply does the moving. Potatoes are a staple with little demand response; a processing sector bidding for open supply in a short year adds a second buyer for the same cartons, and the fresh price carries the competition.
Weather does its damage months before it shows up. Heat at bulking, an early freeze at harvest, or a wet dig that hurts storability sets the supply the market lives with all year; by the time prices rise, the cause is usually already in the sheds.
None of these act alone. A rising stretch usually starts with a short or troubled storage crop, with grade-out, the count spread and the transition calendar deciding how sharp it gets. The falling twin of this page covers the same factors running in reverse.
Common questions
Why are potatoes so expensive right now?
Idaho russet Norkotahs in 70-count 50 lb cartons, the fresh market's trade benchmark, were quoted at $24.00-25.00 per 50 lb carton FOB on Nov 3, 2026 (USDA), up 2.1% from $24.00 a week earlier. That is expensive by the benchmark's own history: the midpoint is 104% above its 5-yr median for the date ($12.00), and the same carton was $7.00 a year earlier. The fall harvest usually pulls the benchmark down: in each of the 5 years from 2021 through 2025, its October average came in below its August average as the new crop filled the sheds (2025: $15.80 a carton in August, $7.50 in October). 2026 has gone the other way: $18.16 in August, $22.81 in October, so this year's crop has not reset the market the way recent harvests did. The structural reasons a market runs high, a short or troubled storage crop, heavy grade-out and a thin supply of the big sizes, are set out on this page under what makes potato prices rise.
Are potato prices going up?
Yes, at the shipping point. The benchmark has risen for 7 straight weeks, up 19.5% on the comparison midpoint since Sep 15, 2026, to $24.00-25.00 per 50 lb carton on Nov 3, 2026. Month over month the midpoint is up 14.0%, $21.50 to $24.50.
How do potato prices compare with a year ago?
At the benchmark the comparison midpoint is $24.50 a carton against $7.00 on Nov 3, 2025, up 250.0%, and 104% above its 5-yr median for the date ($12.00). The midpoint is the middle of USDA's mostly range, the figure the table above tracks.